李娴
中国医学科学院阜外医院 成人第二恢复室
The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether CC-AAbs levels could predict prognosis in CHF patients. A total of 2096 patients with CHF (841 DCM patients and 1255 ICM patients) and 834 control subjects were recruited. CC-AAbs were detected and the relationship between CC-AAbs and patient prognosis was analyzed. During a median follow-up time of 52 months, there were 578 deaths. Of these, sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurred in 102 cases of DCM and 121 cases of ICM. The presence of CC-AAbs in patients was significantly higher than that of controls (both P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that positive CC-AAbs could predict SCD (HR 3.191, 95% CI 1.598-6.369 for DCM; HR 2.805, 95% CI 1.488-5.288 for ICM) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.733, 95% CI 1.042-2.883 for DCM; HR 2.219, 95% CI 1.461-3.371 for ICM) in CHF patients. A significant association between CC-AAbs and non-SCD (NSCD) was found in ICM patients (HR = 1.887, 95% CI 1.081-3.293). Our results demonstrated that the presence of CC-AAbs was higher in CHF patients versus controls and corresponds to a higher incidence of all-cause death and SCD. Positive CC-AAbs may serve as an independent predictor for SCD and all-cause death in these patients.
Disease markers 2014
OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the applicability of developed prediction models of ischemic cardiovascular diseases (ICVD) in Chinese to other Chinese populations.METHOD:We used the independent prospective cohort established in early 1990's from China Multi-Center Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Epidemiology (MUCA), as the validation cohort, to test the hypothesis. The area under ROC curve (AUC) based on the application of the Cox optimal model and the simplified model to the validation cohort were calculated and to test the ability of the prediction models to discriminate events from nonevents. Applicability was evaluated by comparing the mean probability estimates in each decile of probability in the validation cohort with the observed incidence with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.RESULTS:The validation cohort enrolled a total of 17 329 men and women aged 35 to 59 years baseline 1992 - 1994. In this paper, we used data from the remaining 15 100 participants after excluding 2229 subjects for at missing value of risk factors. During 11-year follow up of the cohort, there were 347 ICVD events (206 for men and 141 for women), including 83 coronary heart disease events (56 men and 27 women) and 268 ischemic strokes (154 men and 114 women). ROC curves for men and women showed good and almost identical discrimination for optimal model (the AUCs (95% CI) were 0.796 (0.762 - 0.829) for men and 0.791 (0.755 - 0.828) for women), simplified model (the AUCs (95% CI) were 0.792 (0.758 - 0.825) for men and 0.783 (0.746 - 0.821) for women) and score system (the AUCs (95% CI) were 0.791 (0.757 - 0.825) for men and 0.779 (0.741 - 0.817) for women) in the validation cohort. The predicted 10-year risk of ICVD by optimal models and observed incidence of ICVD in the validation cohort in each decile were compared. Hosmer-Lemeshow chi2 was 3.7 for men (P = 0.879) and 27.7 for women (P < 0.001). Whereas the largest difference between the observed rate and the predicted rate was only 1%.CONCLUSIONS:The prediction models for estimating 10-year risk of ICVD had satisfied predictive capability when they were applied to the validation cohort and are applicable to other Chinese populations.
Zhonghua xin xue guan bing za zhi 2007
