李军
中国医学科学院阜外医院 麻醉科
Background:To derive and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model of acute kidney injury (AKI) that could be used for AKI surveillance and management to improve clinical outcomes.Methods:This retrospective cohort study was conducted in Fuwai Hospital, including patients aged 18 years and above undergoing cardiac surgery admitted between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. Seventy percent of the observations were randomly selected for training and the remaining 30% for testing. The demographics, comorbidities, laboratory examination parameters, and operation details were used to construct a prediction model for AKI by logistic regression and eXtreme gradient boosting (Xgboost). The discrimination of each model was assessed on the test cohort by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve, while calibration was performed by the calibration plot.Results:A total of 15,880 patients were enrolled in this study, and 4845 (30.5%) had developed AKI. Xgboost model had the higher discriminative ability compared with logistic regression (AUROC, 0.849 [95% CI, 0.837-0.861] vs 0.803[95% CI 0.790-0.817], P<0.001) in the test dataset. The estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) and creatine on intensive care unit (ICU) arrival are the two most important prediction parameters. A SHAP summary plot was used to illustrate the effects of the top 15 features attributed to the Xgboost model.Conclusion:ML models can provide clinical decision support to determine which patients should focus on perioperative preventive treatment to preemptively reduce acute kidney injury by predicting which patients are not at risk.
Clinical epidemiology 2023
PURPOSE:Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] and diabetes mellitus (DM) are both associated with adverse events in high-risk patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD). Currently, the association between Lp(a) levels and recurrent cardiovascular (CV) events (CVEs) remained undetermined in patients with different glucose status. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of Lp(a) levels for recurrent CVEs in high-risk CAD patients who suffered from first CVEs according to different glycemic metabolism.METHODS:We recruited 5257 consecutive patients with prior CVEs and followed up for recurrent CVEs, including CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-fatal stroke. Patients were assigned to low, medium, and high groups according to Lp(a) levels and further stratified by glucose status.RESULTS:During a median 37-month follow-up, 225 (4.28%) recurrent CVEs occurred. High Lp(a) was independently associated with recurrent CVEs [adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR), 1.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-2.19; P = 0.008]. When participants were classified according to Lp(a) levels and glycemic status, high Lp(a) levels were associated with an increased risk of recurrent CVEs in pre-DM (adjusted HR, 2.96; 95% CI 1.24-7.05; P = 0.014). Meanwhile, medium and high Lp(a) levels were both associated with an increased risk for recurrent CVEs in DM (adjusted HR, 3.09; 95% CI 1.30-7.34; P = 0.010 and adjusted HR, 3.13, 95% CI 1.30-7.53; P = 0.011, respectively).CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrated that elevated Lp(a) levels were associated with an increased recurrent CVE risk in patients with CAD, particularly among those with pre-DM and DM, indicating that Lp(a) may provide incremental value in risk stratification in this population.
Journal of endocrinological investigation 2023
STUDY OBJECTIVE:To perform a dose-response meta-analysis for the association between postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) in noncardiac surgery and the risk of all-cause mortality or major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE).DESIGN:Dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies with weighted (WL) or generalized (GL) linear and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression.SETTING:Teaching hospitals.PATIENTS:Adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.INTERVENTIONS:No.MEASUREMENTS:The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was MACE.MAIN RESULTS:29 studies (53,518 patients) were included. The overall incidence of PMI was 26.0% (95% CI 21.0% to 32.0%). Compared to those without PMI, patients with PMI had an increased risk of all-cause mortality at short- (<12 months) (cardiac troponin[cTn]I: unadj OR 1.71,95%CI 1.22 to 2.41, P < 0.001; cTnT: unadj OR 2.33,95%CI 2.07 to 2.63, P < 0.001), and long-term (≥ 12 months) (cTnI: unadj OR 1.80, 95%CI 1.63 to 1.99; cTnT: unadj OR 1.47,95%CI 1.33 to 1.62) (All P < 0.001) follow-up. For MACE, the group with elevated values was associated with an increased risk (cTnI: unadj OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.47, P = 0.018; cTnT: unadj OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.88 to 2.79, P < 0.001). Dose-response analysis showed positive associations between PMI (per 1× upper reference limit[URL] increment) and all-cause mortality both at short- (unadj OR) (WL, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.10; GL, OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.07; RCS in the range of 1-2× URL, OR = 2.43, 95%CI 2.25 to 2.62) and long-term follow-up (unadj HR) (WL, OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.17; GL, OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.16; RCS in the range of 1-2.75× URL, OR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.13 to 1.33), and MACE at longest follow-up (unadj OR) (WL: OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.57; GL: OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.50; RCS in the range of 1-2 x URL, OR = 3.10, 95%CI 2.51 to 3.81) (All P < 0.001). For mild cTn increase below URL, the risk of mortality increased with every increment of 0.25xURL (WL, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.03; GL, OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.07; RCS in the range of 0-0.5 URL, OR = 9.41, 95% CI 7.41 to 11.95) (All P < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS:This study shows positive WL or GL and RCS dose-response relationships between PMI and all-cause mortality at short (< 12 mons)- and long-term (≥ 12 mons) follow-up, and MACE at longest follow-up. For mild cTn increase below URL, the risk of mortality also increases even with every increment of 0.25× URL.
Journal of clinical anesthesia 2023
Based on high-throughput transcriptomic sequencing, SNHG3 was among the most highly expressed long noncoding RNAs in calcific aortic valve disease. SNHG3 upregulation was verified in human and mouse calcified aortic valves. Moreover, in vivo and in vitro studies showed SNHG3 silencing markedly ameliorated aortic valve calcification. In-depth functional assays showed SNHG3 physically interacted with polycomb repressive complex 2 to suppress the H3K27 trimethylation BMP2 locus, which in turn activated BMP2 expression and signaling pathways. Taken together, SNHG3 promoted aortic valve calcification by upregulating BMP2, which might be a novel therapeutic target in human calcific aortic valve disease.
JACC. Basic to translational science 2022
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2021.758854.].
Frontiers in surgery 2022
BACKGROUND:Hospital-acquired infection (HAI) after cardiac surgery is a common clinical concern associated with adverse prognosis and mortality. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of HAI and its associated risk factors in elderly patients following cardiac surgery and to build a nomogram as a predictive model.METHODS:We developed and internally validated a predictive model from a retrospective cohort of 6405 patients aged ≥70 years, who were admitted to our hospital and underwent cardiac surgery. The primary outcome was HAI. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent factors significantly associated with HAI. The performance of the established nomogram was assessed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. Internal validation was achieved by bootstrap sampling with 1000 repetitions to reduce the overfit bias.RESULTS:Independent factors derived from the multivariable analysis to predict HAI were smoking, myocardial infarction, cardiopulmonary bypass use, intraoperative erythrocytes transfusion, extended preoperative hospitalization days and prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation postoperatively. The derivation model showed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.706 [95% confidence interval 0.671-0.740], and good calibration [Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.139]. Internal validation also maintained optimal discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful.CONCLUSIONS:We developed a predictive nomogram for postoperative HAIs based on routinely available data. This predictive tool may enable clinicians to achieve better perioperative management for elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery but still requires further external validation.
Clinical interventions in aging 2022
BACKGROUND:The high morbidity and mortality of calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) represents an unmet clinical need to investigate the molecular mechanisms involved. Evidence suggests that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) can act as competitive endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs) by binding to microRNAs and regulating target genes in cardiovascular diseases. Nevertheless, the role of lncRNAs related ceRNA regulation in CAVD remains unclear.METHODS:RNAseq data of human diseased aortic valves were downloaded from GEO data sets (GSE153555, GSE199718), and differentially expressed lncRNAs (DElncRNAs), mRNAs (DEmRNAs) between CAVD and non-calcific aortic valve tissues with limma R package. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway and Gene Set Enrichment analysis (GSEA) were performed with clusterProfiler and gesaplot2 R package. The pivotal microRNAs were predicted by three databases intersection including TargetScan, MiRwalk, miRDB according to the genes related to the crucial pathways. ENCORI was used to predict targeted lncRNAs of hub microRNAs. We constructed lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA network with Cytoscape software. The lncRNAs in ceRNA network were verified by RT-qPCR in human 30 calcific and 20 noncalcified aortic valve tissues.RESULTS:In total, 1739 DEmRNAs and 266 DElncRNAs were identified in CAVD. GO, KEGG pathway, GSEA annotations suggested that most of these genes are enriched in extracellular matrix (ECM)-reporter interaction pathways. The ceRNA networks associated with ECM-reporter interaction are constructed and related lncRNAs including H19, SNHG3 and ZNF436-AS1 were significant upregulated in human calcific aortic valve tissues, which might be potential therapeutic targets for CAVD.CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we proposed a novel lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA ceRNA network related to ECM-reporter interaction pathways, which potentially regulates CAVD progression.
Cells 2022
BACKGROUND:Patients with heart failure who undergo cardiac surgery have increased long-term mortality in which acute kidney injury (AKI) plays a role. However, little is known about whether the incidence of AKI differs according to stratified left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).OBJECTIVES:To assess the risks of mild AKI and moderate to severe AKI postcardiac surgery among patients with heart failure.DESIGN:Retrospective cohort analysis of patient data. Ejection fractions were categorised as LVEF less than 40%, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); LVEF 40 to 49%, heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF); and LVEF at least 50%, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).PATIENTS AND SETTINGS:Patients who underwent cardiac surgery from 2012 to 2019 in Fuwai Hospital, Beijing, China, were consecutively enrolled.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The primary endpoint was postoperative AKI staged either as mild AKI or moderate to severe AKI. The secondary outcome was the peri-operative composite adverse event of dialysis support, tracheotomy, intrasurgical and postsurgical mechanical cardiac support and in-hospital mortality. This study also assessed chronic renal dysfunction at follow-up.RESULTS:Of the 54 696 included patients, 18.9% presented with heart failure. Among these with HFpEF, HFmrEF and HFrEF, the incidence of postoperative mild AKI was 37.0, 33.4 and 37.6%, respectively. Patients with HFpEF and HFmrEF were characterised by numerically greater prevalence of moderate to severe AKI than HFrEF (8.5 vs. 9.1 vs. 5.8%). HFrEF and HFmrEF patients had comparable risks for mild AKI relative to HFpEF patients, odds ratio (OR) 0.885; 95% confidence interval CI 0.763 to 1.027 for HFmrEF vs. HFpEF; OR 1.083; 95% CI 0.933 to 1.256 for HFrEF vs. HFpEF. Patients with HFmrEF were more at risk for moderate to severe AKI than patients with HFpEF (OR, 1.368; 95% CI 1.066 to 1.742), but HFrEF and HFpEF did not differ significantly (OR 1.012; 95% CI 0.752 to 1.346). An increasing number of noncardiac comorbidities led to a higher risk of mild AKI and moderate to severe AKI in patients with heart failure; and its effect on AKI was almost equal among the three heart failure strata. The incidence of postoperative composite adverse outcome increased in a graded manner from HFpEF to HFmrEF to HFrEF. Information on the creatine concentrations at 3 months postoperatively and longer were retained for 5200 out of 10 347 (50.6%) heart failure patients in our charts.The AKI severity and the presence of HFmrEF contributed substantially to the development of renal dysfunction over a median [IQR] follow-up of 10 months [4.0 to 21.0].CONCLUSIONS:Initiative programmes aimed at patients with HFrEF to prevent moderate to severe AKI and chronic kidney dysfunction should also include patients with HFmrEF.
European journal of anaesthesiology 2022
Objective: On the basis of preliminarily verifying the use of ultra-fast reaction polymer matrix optical fiber oxygen sensor and its measuring system to record the continuous and dynamic changes of carotid artery oxygen partial pressure (PaO2), in order to analyze and discuss the influence of lung ventilation on the continuous and dynamic changes of PaO2, we designed a whole animal experimental study in vivo. Methods: Four hybrid goats were selected, and the skin was cut and exposed directly under general anesthesia and tracheal intubation. The oxygen sensor, connected with the measuring system, was inserted directly into the left carotid artery to continuously record the dynamic changes of PaO2. With normal minute ventilation,mechanical ventilation is implemented through three tidal volumes: normal tidal volume (VT=15 ml/kg, Rf=20 bpm), half tidal volume (halved VT, doubled Rf) and double tidal volume (doubled VT, halved Rf). Each tidal volume was stable for 10~15 min respectively. We analyzed and calculated the average values of PaO2, the fluctuation magnitudes of PaO2 changes between breaths of last 180 s and the delay times of lung-carotid artery were. We analyzed the effects of different tidal volumes. Results: The heart rate and blood pressure of living goats were maintained stable during the mechanical ventilation experiment with normal ventilation volume Lung-carotid artery delay time is 1.4~1.8 s (about 3 heartbeats at this time). Under normal tidal volume of mechanical ventilation, the average value of PaO2 was (102.94±2.40, 99.38~106.16) mmHg, and the fluctuation range was (21.43±1.65, 19.21~23.59) mmHg, accounting for (20.80± 1.34, 18.65~22.22)% of the average value. Under the condition of halving tidal volume, the average value of PaO2 was maintained at (101.01±4.25, 94.09~105.66) mmHg, which was slightly decreased but not significant (P>0.05 compared with normal mechanical ventilation), but the fluctuation range of PaO2 was significantly reduced to (18.14±1.43, 16.46~20.05) mmHg, accounting for 17.5% of the average value. Under double tidal volume mechanical ventilation, although the average value of PaO2 increased slightly remained at (106.42±4.74, 101.19~114.08) mmHg (P>0.05 compared with normal mechanical ventilation and P<0.05 compared with half tidal volume mechanical ventilation), the fluctuation magnitude of PaO2 increased significantly to (26.58±1.88, 23.46~28.46)mmHg. Conclusion: Inspiration and expiration of normal lung ventilation are the initial factors for the increase and decrease of PaO2 in carotid artery. Under normal ventilation, halving tidal volume and doubling tidal volume significantly changed the fluctuation magnitude of PaO2, but the average value of PaO2 changed only slightly, while the lung-carotid delay time was similar.
Zhongguo ying yong sheng li xue za zhi = Zhongguo yingyong shenglixue zazhi = Chinese journal of applied physiology 2021
BACKGROUND:Evidence for peritoneal dialysis catheter (PDC) usage in pediatric patients undergoing surgery for deteriorating cardiac dysfunction is lacking. This investigation explored factors associated with PDC usage and its effectiveness in children with anomalous origin of the left coronary artery from the pulmonary artery (ALCAPA).METHODS:Eighty-four children undergoing left coronary artery transfer were retrospectively recruited. The primary endpoint was the postoperative ratio of the general ward/[intensive care unit (ICU)] length of stay. Univariable and multivariable analyses were fitted to assess factors related most strongly to PDC and the ratio of general ward/ICU length of stay.RESULTS:Of the 84 patients, 17 (20.2%) underwent postoperative PDC placement. Patients with extreme cardiac dysfunction [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤25%] were much more likely to require a PDC (OR, 9.88; 95% CI, 2.13-45.76; P = 0.003). Moreover, univariate analysis indicated that concomitant mitral repair significantly decreased the likelihood of PDC placement (OR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.07-0.85; P = 0.026). In those with cardiac dysfunction (LVEF ≤50%), PDC use was associated with a reduced ratio of ward/ICU length of stay (B, - 1.62; 95% CI, - 2.77- -0.46; P = 0.008), as was age ≤ 12 months (B, - 1.57; 95% CI, - 2.88- -0.26; P = 0.02). At the 1-year follow-up, cardiac improvement was significantly greater in patients with PDC usage than in those without it (P < 0.001), and the number of mitral recoveries was comparable between the groups (64.2% vs. 53.3%, P = 0.434).CONCLUSION:In cohorts with ALCAPA, PDC placement following surgery may be necessary for patients with extreme cardiac compromise, while concomitant mitral repair can probably reduce their usage rate. PDC is beneficial in conferring an improvement in cardiac and mitral performance. Importantly, after patients are transferred from the ICU, recovery efficiency in the general ward can be enhanced by PDC placement, and hospital discharge can therefore be achieved early, especially for patients younger than 12 months or with LVEF ≤50%.
BMC pediatrics 2021
