林宏远
中国医学科学院阜外医院 小儿心外科
BACKGROUND:To preferably evaluate and predict the risk for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery, we developed a new prediction model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression and machine learning (ML) algorithms.METHODS:Clinical data including baseline characteristics and peri-operative data of 7163 elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery from January 2016 to December 2018 were collected at 87 hospitals in the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR). Patients were divided into training (N = 5774 [80%]) and testing samples (N = 1389 [20%]) according to their date of operation. LASSO-logistic regression models and ML models were used to analyze risk factors and develop the prediction model. We compared the discrimination and calibration of each model and EuroSCORE II.RESULTS:A total of 7163 patients were included in this study, with a mean age of 69.8 (SD 4.5) years, and 45.0% were women. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 4.05%. The final model included seven risk factors: age, prior cardiac surgery, cardiopulmonary bypass duration time (CPB time), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), creatinine clearance rate (CCr), combined coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class. LASSO-logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), support vector classification (SVC) and logistic regression (LR) models had the best discrimination and calibration in both training and testing cohorts, which were superior to the EuroSCORE II.CONCLUSIONS:The mortality rate for elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery was relatively high. LASSO-logistic regression, LDA, SVC and LR can predict the risk for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery well.
Journal of cardiovascular development and disease 2023
BACKGROUND:We aimed to briefly describe the use of total arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk in our center's 12-year treatment of acute type A dissection and the early postoperative results. We summarized the practical experience of this procedure in our center and performed regression analyses to find the independent risk factors for major complications.METHODS:Consecutive patients with acute type A dissection having surgical total arch replacement with the implantation of a frozen elephant trunk were collected from January 2010 to December 2021 and were included in the analysis. For each major operation-related complication, independent risk factors were identified using both univariate and multivariate regression models.RESULTS:In our institution, the total arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk procedure is used more frequently each year and makes up 70% of the surgical procedures for acute type A dissection. The overall postoperative mortality rate was 6.2%, which declined as the techniques (including surgical procedures, organ perfusion protection etc.) improved. Other complications include: 11.7% for continuous renal replacement therapy, 5.7% for stroke, 17.8% for ICU stay longer than 7 days, 10.9% for prolonged mechanical ventilation, and so on. According to regression analysis, different major complications had different independent risk factors. Several factors, such as advanced age, impaired renal function, and extended cardiopulmonary bypass time, were found to be implicated in nearly all of the complications.CONCLUSION:Total arch replacement plus frozen elephant trunk strategy is a safe surgical method for extensive acute type A dissection. Some factors, such as advanced age, impaired renal function, and prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time, might be associated with poor prognosis.
International journal of cardiology 2023
The goal of this study is to summarize valvular surgery data from the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR) and compare it to the most recent data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). From 2016 to 2018, a total of 34,386 cases of the seven most common valvular surgical procedures was obtained from the CCSR. We calculated the proportions of different procedures in the CCSR cohort (n = 34,386) as well as the change in operation volume for each procedure. We also compiled rates of postoperative in-hospital mortality and five major complications across all procedures. All of the results were compared to the STS data. The CCSR and STS data showed divergent trends in valvular heart disease features and operation volume. Although the proportion of MV repair in the CCSR (13.7%) data was lower than in the STS data (23.2%), it demonstrated a substantial upward trend. In terms of operation volume, the CCSR data showed an upward trend, but the STS data showed a downward trend. CCSR procedures showed lower mortality (2% vs. 2.6%), reoperation (2.8% vs. 4.3%), and permanent stroke (0.5% vs. 1.6%) rates than STS procedures but higher rates of prolonged ventilation (22.4% vs. 10.4%) and renal failure (5.6% vs. 3.2%). Valvular surgery quality in China's leading cardiac hospitals is roughly comparable to that in the United States. China, on the other hand, has some shortcomings that need improvement.
Journal of cardiovascular development and disease 2022
AIMS:To characterize surgical valvular heart diseases (VHDs) in China and disclose regional variations in VHD surgeries by analyzing the data derived from the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR).METHODS AND RESULTS:From January 2016 to December 2018, we consecutively collected the demographic information, clinical characteristics and outcomes of 38,131 adult patients undergoing valvular surgery in China. We sought to assess the quality of VHD surgery by examining in-hospital deaths of all patients from 7 geographic regions. Using a hierarchical generalized linear model, we calculated the risk-standardized mortality rate (RSMR) of each region. By comparing VHD characteristics and RSMRs, we pursued an investigation into regional variations. The mean age was 54.4 ± 12.4 years, and 47.2% of the patients were females. Among cases, the number of aortic valve surgeries was 9361 (24.5%), which was less than that of mitral valve surgeries (n = 14,506, 38.0%). The number of concurrent aortic and mitral valve surgeries was 6984 (18.3%). A total of 4529 surgical VHD patients (11.9%) also underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.17%. The lowest RSMR, 0.91%, was found in the southwest region, and the highest RSMR, 3.99%, was found in the northeast.CONCLUSION:Although the overall valvular surgical mortality rate in large Chinese cardiac centers was in line with high-income countries, there were marked regional variations in the characteristics and outcomes of surgical VHD patients across China.
BMC cardiovascular disorders 2022
OBJECTIVE:One-staged surgical treatment of aortic coarctation combined with cardiac anomalies is challenging. We aim to evaluate the feasibility of bilateral aortofemoral bypass technique in one-staged surgery treating coractation by comparing surgical outcomes with catheter intervention plus stent (hybrid).METHODS:Between January 2012 and December 2017, 50 patients underwent one-staged surgical procedures to treat coarctation and repair concomitant cardiac anomalies, like aortic root dilatation, cardiac valvular disease and so on. Among them, 30 patients underwent bilateral aortofemoral bypass and 20 patients underwent hybrid procedure to treat coarctation. We retrospectively analyzed the data of these patients and compared the early and late results.RESULTS:All the baseline clinical characteristics were comparable between groups except that the mean age of bypass group was 39.5 ± 14.0 years which was older than hybrid group (27.9 ± 8.5 years, P = 0.002). Technical success was achieved in all patients, with no hospital death or other severe complications. Immediately after surgery, in bypass and hybrid group, the mean upper-limb systolic blood pressure decreased from 159.4 to 119.7 mmHg and 148.4 to 111.6 mmHg, the median peak systolic gradient decreased from 68.0 to 10 mmHg and 46.5 to 10 mmHg respectively (P = 0.09). And the mean upper-lower limbs gradient decreased from 21.7 to 5.9 mmHg and 21.0 to 2.7 mmHg respectively (P = 0.104). The mean follow-up time was 76.92 ± 18.7 in bypass group and 85.4 ± 20.6 months in hybrid group. There were 4 late deaths in bypass group (one died of gastrointestinal bleeding, one died of pulmonary embolism and the other two died of heart failure caused by mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction). The follow-up peak systolic gradient and other blood pressure parameters showed stable and no differences between two groups.CONCLUSIONS:The bilateral aortofemoral bypass surgery is a safe and effective method which can be used in one-staged surgical strategy to treat coarctation complicated by cardiac anomalies and can be an alternative to the hybrid method.
BMC cardiovascular disorders 2022
Objective:To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict postoperative 30-day mortality in acute type A aortic dissection patients receiving total aortic arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk technique.Method:Clinical data on 1,156 consecutive acute type A aortic dissection patients who got total aortic arch replacement using the frozen elephant trunk technique was collected from January 2010 to December 2020. These patients were divided into training and testing cohorts at random with a ratio of 7:3. To predict postoperative 30-day mortality, a nomogram was established in the training set using the logistic regression model. The novel nomogram was then validated in the testing set. The nomogram's calibration and discrimination were evaluated. In addition, we created four machine learning prediction models in the training set. In terms of calibration and discrimination, the nomogram was compared to these machine learning models in testing set.Results:Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter <45 mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 ml/min/1.73 m2, persistent abdominal pain, radiological celiac trunk malperfusion, concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting and cardiopulmonary bypass time >4 h were independent predictors of the 30-day mortality. The nomogram based on these 6 predictors manifested satisfying calibration and discrimination. In testing set, the nomogram outperformed the other 4 machine learning models.Conclusion:The novel nomogram is a simple and effective tool to predict 30-day mortality rate for acute type A aortic dissection patients undergoing total aortic arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk technique.
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine 2022
Background:The optimal arterial cannulation site for acute aortic dissection repair is unclear, especially for complex arch surgery. Axillary artery cannulation is widely accepted but adding femoral artery cannulation to it was considered to potentially improve perfusion and early outcomes. To clarify this point, a comparison of perioperative outcomes for these two different cannulation strategies was conducted regarding the pathological features of dissection.Methods:From January 2010 to December 2019, 927 consecutive patients underwent a total arch replacement combined with frozen elephant trunk for acute type A aortic dissection. The data, including detailed pathological features, were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for adjusting confounders that are potentially related to the outcome.Results:A total of 523 patients (56.3%) accepted a dual arterial cannulation (DAC group), and 406 patients (43.7%) received a single axillary artery cannulation (SAC group). In total, 388 pairs of patients were well-matched. Whether before or after adjusting the preoperative characteristics by matching, there were no significant differences in operative mortality (6.7 vs. 5.4%, P = 0.420 before matching; 5.4 vs. 5.4%, P = 1 after matching), stroke (6.7 vs. 5.4%, P = 0.420 before matching; 6.4 vs. 5.2%, P = 0.435 after matching), spinal cord injury (5 vs. 5.7%, P = 0.640 before matching; 5.4 vs. 5.7%, P = 1. After matching), and acute renal failure requiring dialysis (13.8 vs. 9.6%, P =0.050 before matching; 12.6 vs. 9.5%, P = 0.174) between the two groups. Dual arterial cannulation was not an independent protective factor of operative mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-1.86), stroke (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.65-2.11), spinal cord injury (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.65-2.11), and acute renal failure requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) (OR 1.24, 95% CI 0.78-1.97) after adjusting for confounding factors by multivariable logistic regression analysis. In the subgroup analysis, no advantage of dual arterial cannulation was found for a particular population.Conclusions:Single axillary artery cannulation was competent in the complex arch repair for acute aortic dissection, presenting with a satisfactory result as dual arterial cannulation. Adding femoral artery cannulation was necessary when a sufficient flow volume could not be achieved by axillary artery cannulation or when a lower limb malperfusion existed.
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine 2022
Objective:To describe the natural history of the ascending aorta in elderly patients after aortic valve replacement (AVR) for aortic valve stenosis and to clarify the risk factors associated with the progression of the ascending aorta.Methods:This retrospective review included a total of 87 elderly patients who had undergone aortic valve replacement for severe aortic valve stenosis in Fuwai Hospital. The patients were categorized into two groups based on the height-based aortic height index (AHI) before AVR, as determined by echocardiography and computed tomography: Group A (n = 28) was defined as an AHI > 2.44 cm/m, and Group B (n = 59) was defined as an AHI ≤ 2.44 cm/m. The perioperative and follow-up data were collected, and a linear mixed-effect model was used to analyze and compare the change rate of the ascending aorta after AVR.Results:The mean follow-up period was 4.0 ± 1.3 years. The diameter of ascending aorta in group A increased from 37.2 ± 5.0 mm at discharge to 40.7 ± 4.7 mm at the last follow-up (P=0.001), while that of group B increased only from 33.3 ± 4.4 mm to 33.7 ± 4.1 mm (P > 0.05).The ascending aorta diameter expansive rate was 0.81 mm/year in group A and 0.14 mm/year in group B. The expansive rate was significantly greater in patients with an AHI>2.44 cm/m than in those with anything else (P = 0.009). A univariable linear mixed model analysis revealed that the AHI>2.44 cm/m was the only significant risk factor for ascending aortic dilatation rate after AVR. There were 4 patients who died in hospital and 11 late follow-up deaths. Particularly, there was no aortic event that occurred during follow-up.Conclusion:For elderly patients with aortic stenosis, the possibility of progressive ascending aortic dilatation after AVR demands regular follow-up, and AHI may be an important risk factor for the change rate of the diameter of the ascending aorta.
Cardiology research and practice 2022
OBJECTIVES:Aortico-left ventricular tunnel (ALVT) is an extremely rare, abnormal paravalvular communication between the aorta and the left ventricle. Few studies have identified the characteristics and long-term prognosis associated with ALVT.METHODS:The data of 31 patients with ALVT from July 2002 to December 2019 were reviewed. Echocardiography was performed in all patients during the follow-up period.RESULTS:The median age of the patients was 11.5 years. Bicuspid aortic valve and dilatation of the ascending aorta were found in 13 patients, respectively. The aortic orifice in 20 patients showed a close relation to the right sinus and the right-left commissure. Of the 31 patients, 26 were operated on. Mechanical valve replacement was performed in 4 patients and aortic valve repair, in 6 patients. Ascending aortoplasty was performed in 5 patients and aortic replacement was done in 2 patients. One patient died of ventricular fibrillation before the operation. Follow-up of the remaining 30 patients ranged from 1 to 210 months (median 64 months). There were 4 deaths during the follow-up period: 1 had mechanical valve replacement and 3 did not undergo surgical repair. In the 26 patients without aortic valve replacement, 6 had severe regurgitation and 2 had moderate regurgitation. In the 28 patients without replacement of the ascending aorta, 11 had continued dilatation of the ascending aorta, including those who had aortoplasty.CONCLUSIONS:The aortic orifice of ALVT showed an association with the right sinus and the right-left commissure. For patients who did not have surgery, the long-term survival rate remained terrible. Surgical closure should be done as soon as possible after ALVT is diagnosed. The main long-term complications after surgical repair included aortic regurgitation and ascending aortic dilatation.
Interactive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery 2021
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Heart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).METHODS:From 2012 to 2017, Clinical information of 1208 consecutive patients who had LVEF< 50% and underwent isolated CABG was collected to establish a derivation cohort. A novel nomogram was developed using the logistic regression model to predict postoperative AKI among these patients. According to the same inclusion criteria and the same period, we extracted the data of patients from 6 other large cardiac centers in China (n = 540) from the China Heart Failure Surgery Registry (China-HFSR) database for external validation of the new model. The nomogram was compared with 3 other available models predicting renal failure after cardiac surgery in terms of calibration, discrimination and net benefit.RESULTS:In the derivation cohort (n = 1208), 90 (7.45%) patients were diagnosed with postoperative AKI. The nomogram included 7 independent risk factors: female, increased preoperative creatinine(> 2 mg/dL), LVEF< 35%, previous myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) used and perioperative blood transfusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.738, higher than the other 3 models. By comparing calibration curves and decision curve analyses (DCA) with other models, the novel nomogram showed better calibration and greater net benefit. Among the 540 patients in the validation cohort, 104 (19.3%) had postoperative AKI, and the novel nomogram performed better with respect to calibration, discrimination and net benefit.CONCLUSIONS:The novel nomogram is a reliable model to predict postoperative AKI following isolated CABG for patients with impaired LVEF.
BMC cardiovascular disorders 2020
